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Drift modelling for live operations
The Marine Institute provides modelling tools that help predict where a missing person, vessel, or object is most likely to drift at sea. By combining ocean currents, wind conditions, and object-specific behaviour, these forecasts identify priority search areas and support faster, more informed decisions.
We work closely with An Garda Síochána and the RNLI to support live SAR operations.
How it works
Particle-tracking models simulate how objects move on the ocean surface. Virtual particles are released from the last known location and driven by real-time ocean currents and wind data.
The models include object characteristics, such as windage. Their outputs show probability maps of likely drift over time, providing an evidence-based view of how a search area evolves.
ADRIFT: Real-time SAR Modelling Tool
ADRIFT is the Marine Institute’s web-based tool for SAR modelling. Users can quickly set up simulations and view results in an interactive format. Animated heatmaps highlight high-probability search zones.
References
References
Data and Models
- the OpenDrift Leeway model (US Coast Guard)
- wind data from ECMWF
- the ROMS Northeast Atlantic model, at approximately 2 km resolution
- higher-resolution coastal models for Bantry Bay, Dublin Bay, and Galway Bay